Improved bench has Spurs ready to ride in watered-down West

Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's tough to write an obituary for a team that wins 61 games during the NBA's regular season but that didn't stop a number of my peers from declaring the aging San Antonio Spurs dead on arrival after they were exposed by a younger, far more athletic Memphis bunch in last season's Western Conference quarterfinals.

In fact, many believed the window had officially slammed shut on the Tim Duncan-era in the River City, at least when it comes to championships.

Fast forward to Wednesday night and the Spurs looked anything but done. Tony Parker was brilliant, exploding for 37 points to go along with eight assists as San Antonio held off the much-improved 76ers, 100-90.

"Tony Parker was amazing tonight to say the least," Sixers coach Doug Collins said after watching the French star torch his team. "He had that ball on a string, and we were just trying to do our best to keep him corralled, make him shoot jump shots and we just never could get him under control."

Duncan added a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds for San Antonio but it was Gregg Popovich's bench that really shined. Gary Neal made all four of his three-pointers and netted 18 points, while the emerging Tiago Splitter tortured Philadelphia inside, shooting 7-for-10 for 15 points.

In fact the Spurs' bench, lightly regarded before the season started, more than held it's own against the vaunted Sixers reserves that include two Sixth Men of the Year candidates -- Lou Williams and Thaddeus Young.

"Our history here is really bad so it's a huge win for us, Parker said. "We are going in the right direction. The young guys are improving. They are playing better on the road. They are playing with confidence."

It wasn't like the Spurs were going to turn into a lottery team overnight as long as Duncan and his long-time supporting cast of Parker and Manu Ginobili were still around. But, a lockout-shortened 66-game season short on off-days and practice time didn't figure to be the friend of any veteran group with significant mileage on its legs.

That said, here we are in the second week of February and San Antonio is at the top of the Southwest Division and among the top seeds in the conference after winning six straight and starting their annual Rodeo Road Trip at 2-0. And it's all been done without Ginobili, who has been gone for a little over a month with a broken left hand.

It's not often that losing an All-Star can help in the long run but Ginobili's absence along with Duncan's age has almost forced Popovich to integrate new blood into his lineup, most notably Splitter, Neal and rookie Kawhi Leonard.

"We felt [building a bench was necessary] with our guys getting a little older," Popovich said "We have shown confidence in them from the get-go, throw them out on the floor and let them see what it's like, and let them make mistakes. Get on them when necessary and love them when necessary."

Splitter, the former Euroleague star, has seen his numbers increase in every statistical category from his pedestrian rookie season. Through 27 games, the Brazilian is averaging 9.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, while shooting a team-best 62.3 percent from the field.

"He didn't develop anything with us," Popovich said when asked about Splitter's improvement. "He's always had it, he just didn't play last year. He's been doing what you saw tonight for I don't know, the last seven or eight years. That's who his is. He's just a blue-collar kind of guy that a coach loves. Fundamentally sound and balanced. He doesn't have a lot of skills but his basketball IQ is off the charts."

Leonard wasn't much in Philly on Wednesday but has more often that not provided the type of athleticism that has been lacking at times in San Antonio. Neal, meanwhile, helps space the floor with a sweet stroke.

"This is a world championship team and organization," Collins said. "Pop is a great coach. They string you out. They get you in pick-and-roll and put three- point shooters on the floor. Neal came in and really hurt us tonight."

The Spurs have now officially weathered the storm minus Ginobili, compiling a 15-7 mark without the Argentine star as he prepares to return to the lineup, perhaps this weekend in New Jersey.

"Before you know it, we will get Manu back and we can start rolling," Parker said.

The team's current trip could have been the type of roadblock to derail the season considering how the Spurs started away from the AT&T Center. But, after getting out of the gates at 0-5 as the visitor, San Antonio has now won five of seven away from South Texas.

Before the trip ends the Spurs will have visited nine different cities and traveled nearly 8,000 miles. When they arrive back in the Alamo City on Feb. 29, we should all know if the club is still a serious contender in what is shaping up as a watered-down West.

My guess is the Spurs have improved their depth enough to have one last rodeo in them come playoff time.

"Tony and Tim have been great in this stretch," Popovich said. "The bench has surprised us all. Those guys are playing really well for us and that's what is allowing us opportunities to win."

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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